Is the US closer to war with Iran or China?

If you mean which conflict is more likely in the near term, the better general answer is Iran. The US has more frequent flashpoints with Iran and Iranian-linked groups, so the risk of a limited clash, strike, or maritime incident is generally higher.

If you mean which would be more serious, the answer is China. A US-China war would be vastly more consequential because it would involve two major powers and could quickly become a large-scale regional or global conflict.

So, in simple terms: closer to a limited conflict with Iran; farther from a full war with China, but with much higher stakes if it happened.

That said, exact risk levels can change quickly with events in the Middle East, the Taiwan Strait, military incidents, or leadership decisions. For the most current assessment, check recent statements from the US State Department, the Pentagon, major defense analysts, and reputable geopolitical risk briefings.