Is Social Security going to run out?

No — Social Security is not expected to simply disappear or “run out” completely. The more likely issue is a funding shortfall: if Congress does nothing, the program could still pay reduced benefits from ongoing payroll-tax revenue, but not the full scheduled amount.

What that means

• Social Security is mainly funded by payroll taxes from current workers, plus taxes on some benefits and the trust funds.
• The trust funds are projected to be depleted in the mid-2030s under recent projections, but the exact year can change from one Trustees Report to the next.
• After depletion, benefits would not drop to zero. The program would still collect payroll taxes and could pay most, but not all, scheduled benefits.

Why people worry

If Congress does not act before depletion, automatic across-the-board benefit cuts would be required unless the law changes. Common policy options include:

1. Raising payroll taxes
2. Raising or removing the wage cap
3. Changing the benefit formula
4. Adjusting retirement age rules

Bottom line

Social Security is much more likely to be restructured or partially reduced than to “run out” entirely.

Verify with the latest Social Security Trustees Report, since the depletion date and shortfall estimate are updated regularly and can change with economic assumptions and legislation.