Can AI replace Uber drivers before 2030?

Probably not completely before 2030. AI and autonomous vehicles are likely to take a larger share of Uber-style trips by then, but fully replacing human drivers everywhere by 2030 is unlikely.

Why:

• Regulation will still matter a lot, and approvals usually happen city by city and state by state.
• Current commercially deployed autonomous ride-hailing systems operate with important limits, including geofenced areas and specific weather, road, and operational conditions.
• Scaling a driverless fleet is expensive and operationally difficult, so adoption is likely to be gradual rather than all at once.
• Uber’s likely path is a hybrid one: more robotaxis in places where they work well, with human drivers still handling many trips for the foreseeable future.

So the best short answer is: AI is more likely to reduce demand for Uber drivers before 2030 than eliminate them entirely.